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China's import growth unexpectedly fell for the second consecutive month in August, posting its worst performance in over a year and stoking speculation about whether authorities should loosen policy further to revive domestic demand, said Reuters.
Imports by the world's second-biggest economy fell 2.4 percent in August compared with a year ago, the General Administration of Customs said on Monday, missing a Reuters estimate for a 1.7 percent rise. It was the second straight month that China's import growth was surprisingly weak, raising concerns that tepid domestic demand exacerbated by a cooling housing market is increasingly weighing on the economy.
In contrast, China's exports were surprisingly buoyant in August amid stronger global demand. They jumped 9.4 percent from a year earlier to beat a forecast rise of 8 percent, although the growth rate slowed from 14.5 percent in July. That pushed the trade surplus to an unexpected all-time high of $49.8 billion, which could put further appreciation pressure on the yuan currency CNY=CFXS.
Although falling commodity prices have magnified the weakness in imports as China's trade data is measured in terms of value, analysts said Chinese demand also seemed to be fizzling. "It's an interesting set of numbers for policymakers," said Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS. "It calls for more policy easing, but at the same time, strong exports and a record surplus will put some pressure on policymakers to let the currency rise in some way or the other."
China's economy has had a bumpy ride this year. Growth rebounded slightly in the second quarter from an 18-month low thanks to a stream of government stimulus measures, but hopes that the recovery would gain traction were dashed in July when data showed activity was stumbling again. As a result, authorities have repeatedly warned that China may miss its target to grow its trade sector by 7.5 percent this year, even though they maintained that the broader economy can grow by around 7.5 percent in 2014.
Indeed, a breakdown of Monday's trade data showed Chinese exports slowed across most major markets, compared with July when growth hit a 15-month high. Exports to the United States, the top buyer of Chinese exports, rose 11.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with July's 12.3 percent increase. Sales to Europe, where factory activity is faltering, cooled to 12.1 percent on an annual basis, from July's 17 percent.
In terms of imports, purchases from Europe - a major seller of goods and services to China - fell to a 14-month low of 4.5 percent from a year earlier. Some analysts said the lacklustre data corroborated with figures seen elsewhere. Steel demand, for instance, has not rebounded despite a steep fall in iron ore prices, noted Mark Pervan, head of research at ANZ Bank.
"That's telling you that they are more cautious on short-term demand," Pervan said, referring to steel mills. "I think that's because of the direction of the housing market currently, which is moving downward."
