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Uzbekistan|business|November 21, 2018 / 03:38 PM
IMF projects Uzbekistan’s consumer price index inflation to rise to 17% by end of 2019

AKIPRESS.COM - Consumer price index (CPI) inflation will remain elevated in Uzbekistan, primarily reflecting the corrections of distorted relative prices and wages, IMF mission said in a statement issued following visit to Tashkent and discussions with Uzbek authorities.

Since peaking at 20½ percent at the beginning of the year, CPI inflation declined to 16½ percent in October (year-on-year). The GDP deflator — a broader measure of prices of goods and services produced in Uzbekistan — reached 31½ percent through the first nine months of 2018, primarily reflecting higher prices of export goods following the depreciation of the exchange rate in September 2017.

In 2019, additional inflationary pressures will be exerted by several factors: increases in regulated energy prices scheduled for mid-November; the 10 percent hike in public wages in November; additional wage increases for education and health care personnel during 2018; higher indirect taxes starting in January 2018; and upward pressures on prices of consumer goods that can be exported, such as fruits and vegetables. In view of these multiple inflation drivers, IMF projects that CPI inflation could rise to 17-18 percent by the end of 2019. This projection assumes implementation of tight monetary, credit, and fiscal policies in 2019, as discussed in the following sections.

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